Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Stochastic volatility models are fundamental tools in finance for accurately estimating and managing risks due to their ability to accommodate a time-varying volatility structure. However, a relevant constraint within these models is the reliance on Gaussian processes to model the latent (log-)variance, which can limit their ability to effectively capture events such as sudden jumps or spikes in the latent volatility. To address this limitation, we propose in this short paper a non-Gaussian SV model utilizing an inference procedure that combines Laplace and Variational Bayes approximations. Our study showcases the advantages of this correction in modeling the conditional variance of Bitcoin's return series.
Source: Brazilian Review of Finance
Authors: João Pedro Nacinben, Márcio Laurini
Institution: Universidade de São Paulo
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4405280044