Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: W hile other sectors of the UK economy have made some progress in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions 1 since 1990, the transport sector, taken to include both air and surface modes as well as domestic and international movements from the UK, has yet to do so (figure 1).In 2019, emissions were 11 per cent above 1990 levels compared to the 53 per cent reduction achieved by the rest of the economic sectors. 2 Emissions from transport finally fell below the baseline level in 2020, due to the impacts on travel activity posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, only to bounce back again since.The latest figures (2023) show transport, including international movements, standing at 151 MtCO 2 e, essentially still at the 1990 baseline.Without some specific policy instruments used over recent decades, the situation would have been even worse.The mandatory CO 2 vehicle emissions performance standards for cars and vans since 2009 4 and the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation since 2008 5 brought continuous attention to the carbon intensity of the light duty vehicle fleet in use.However, the benefits achieved by these efforts have been more than negated by the cumulative impact of a combination of trends, many of which still prevail today.These include discrepancies between vehicle test-cycle and real-world performance, the growth in the size and weight of new cars, the slow uptake of pure battery electric vehicles, the increase in light goods vehicles (or 'van') traffic, minimal progress in efficiency improvements in heavy goods vehicles, and the immense rise in air passenger demand."if transport decarbonisation fails, net zero will also fail" Thus, any discussion of UK transport decarbonisation pathways must begin with the hard truth that the sector's entire emissions reduction challenge will have to be achieved in less than half the allotted 60-year period set down by the UK Climate Change Act to achieve 'net zero ' (1990-2050).In this next phase, the easier wins already secured in the rest of the economy will no longer be available to compensate for transport's failure.Any limited carbon sequestration options that may come online to allow the UK to still emit greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 (as defines the 'net' aspect of the target) are reserved for aviation in this sector; therefore, all surface transport modes must achieve 'absolute zero' emissions. 61 Expressed from this point either as 'emissions', CO 2 or CO 2 equivalents (CO 2 e), unless otherwise specified.2 Department for energy Security and Net Zero [DESNZ] (2024) Provisional UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics, 2023, published 28 March 2024.https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/provisional-uk-greenhouse-gas-emissions-national-statistics- 2023.Domestic transport emissions had fallen 3 per cent compared to the 1990 baseline by 2019, but if international aviation and shipping are added, the sector was 11 per cent above.
Source: IPPR Progressive Review
DOI: 10.1111/newe.12410
Author: Jillian Anable
Institution: University of Leeds
Language: English
Field: Energy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,140
Award: G6754393058
OpenAlex ID: W4405292350