Predicting remission following CBT for childhood anxiety disorders: a machine learning approach
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The identification of predictors of treatment response is crucial for improving treatment outcome for children with anxiety disorders. Machine learning methods provide opportunities to identify combinations of factors that contribute to risk prediction models. METHODS: A machine learning approach was applied to predict anxiety disorder remission in a large sample of 2114 anxious youth (5-18 years). Potential predictors included demographic, clinical, parental, and treatment variables with data obtained pre-treatment, post-treatment, and at least one follow-up. RESULTS: All machine learning models performed similarly for remission outcomes, with AUC between 0.67 and 0.69. There was significant alignment between the factors that contributed to the models predicting two target outcomes: remission of all anxiety disorders and the primary anxiety disorder. Children who were older, had multiple anxiety disorders, comorbid depression, comorbid externalising disorders, received group treatment and therapy delivered by a more experienced therapist, and who had a parent with higher anxiety and depression symptoms, were more likely than other children to still meet criteria for anxiety disorders at the completion of therapy. In both models, the absence of a social anxiety disorder and being treated by a therapist with less experience contributed to the model predicting a higher likelihood of remission. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the utility of prediction models that may indicate which children are more likely to remit or are more at risk of non-remission following CBT for childhood anxiety.
Source: Psychological Medicine
Authors: Lizel-Antoinette Bertie, Juan C. Quiroz, Shlomo Berkovsky, Kristian Arendt, Susan Bögels, Jonathan R. I. Coleman, Peter Cooper, Cathy Creswell, Thalia C. Eley, Catharina Hartman, Krister Fjermestadt, Tina In-Albon, Kristen Lavallee, Kathryn J. Lester, Heidi J. Lyneham, Carla E. Marin, Anna McKinnon, Lauren F. McLellan, Richard Meiser-Stedman, Maaike Nauta, Ronald M. Rapee, Silvia Schneider, Carolyn Schniering, Wendy K. Silverman, Mikael Thastum, Kerstin Thirlwall, Polly Waite, Gro Janne Wergeland, Viviana Wuthrich, Jennifer L. Hudson
Institutions: Black Dog Institute, UNSW Sydney, Macquarie University, Aarhus University, University of Amsterdam, King's College London, University of Reading, University of Oxford, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, University of Oslo, University of Koblenz and Landau, Universität Koblenz, University of Basel, University of Sussex, Yale University, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, Ruhr University Bochum, University of Bergen
Language: English
Subfield: Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
Field: Psychology
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,450
Funders: National Science Foundation, National Institute for Health and Care Research, King's College London, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, TrygFonden, National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Institute of Mental Health
Awards: Etiology and Psychological Treatment of Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD) in Childhood, Evaluation of stepped care for child anxiety, Environmental and genetic risk factors for anxiety disorders in children, G2953478067, G297942311, The Treatment of Child Anxiety in Primary Care via Guided CBT Self-Help: A Randomised Controlled Trial, Does child-therapist contact enhance the efficacy of parent-implemented treatment for anxious rural children?, Does parent anxiety management enhance the efficacy of therapy for children with anxiety?, Parent Mediation of Child Anxiety CBT Outcome, G5149386127, G5181320189, A multi-site study of the genetics of child anxiety and predictors of treatment response, Increasing the efficacy of treatment for socially anxious youth through theoretically derived improvements, G5497742504, G5567428907, G5949963384, G5981795513, G6929208570, G7034453091, G8774424760
OpenAlex ID: W4405475381