Work

Should Egypt be afraid of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? The consequences of adversarial water policy on the Blue Nile

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT Although large dams can provide multiple benefits, they may negatively impact downstream riparians, and could be used to cause harm by withholding water. Concern about deliberately adversarial operation of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) is mounting in Egypt and overshadows the regional negotiations around water resources. We simulate a range of operational policies for the GERD, including an adversarial operation policy, which could reduce annual water releases from the High Aswan Dam (HAD) by 2.72 billion cubic meters (annual exceedance probability of 0.02) compared to operations that seek to reduce downstream water shortages. However, such a policy would reduce annual GERD hydropower generation by 1 TWh, which is equivalent to 7% of the GERD's annual electricity generation. The threat of Ethiopia withholding water is only occasionally credible, as it requires the reservoirs at the GERD and the HAD to both be unusually low, which we show will rarely occur.

Source: Water Policy

DOI: 10.2166/wp.2024.257

Authors: Dale Whittington, Jim Hall, Anna Murgatroyd, Kevin Wheeler

Institutions: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of Manchester, University of Oxford, Newcastle University

Language: English

Topic: Transboundary Water Resource Management

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Clean water and sanitation, Affordable and clean energy, Climate action

Open Access status: diamond

Funder: Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford