Work

Bed census prediction combining expert opinion and patient statistics

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Predictions of bed census are crucial for hospital capacity management choices, encompassing ward sizing, staffing, patient bed assignments, and surgical scheduling. Presently, these predictions heavily rely on doctors’ estimated Expected Discharge Date (EDD). This paper introduces two probabilistic models that integrate EDD with Length of Stay (LoS) distributions derived from data. By employing the Poisson binomial distribution and probabilistic convolution, we generate full census distributions. Applying our approach to real hospital data demonstrates its ability to provide precise predictions, leading to valuable managerial insights. • Predictions of bed census are vital for hospital sizing, staffing, and scheduling. • Current predictions mainly depend on doctors’ estimated discharge date. • We present two models combining expert optinion and with ength of stay data. • We apply the Poisson Binomial distribution. • Our models offer valuable insights, proven with real hospital data.

Source: Omega

DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2024.103262

Authors: Hayo Bos, Stef Baas, Richard J. Boucherie, Erwin W. Hans, Gréanne Leeftink

Institutions: Diakonessenhuis hospital, University of Twente

Language: English

Topic: Healthcare Operations and Scheduling Optimization

Subfield: Emergency Medical Services

Field: Health Professions

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,910