Work

Predicting Forest Evapotranspiration Shifts Under Diverse Climate Change Scenarios by Leveraging the SEBAL Model Across Inner Mongolia

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: This study examines climate change impacts on evapotranspiration in Inner Mongolia, analyzing potential (PET) and actual (AET) evapotranspiration shifts across diverse land-use classes using the SEBAL model and SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projections (2030–2050) relative to a 1985–2015 baseline. Our findings reveal substantial PET increases across all LULC types, with Non-Vegetated Lands consistently showing the highest absolute PET values across scenarios (931.19 mm under baseline, increasing to 975.65 mm under SSP5-8.5) due to limited vegetation cover and shading effects, while forests, croplands, and savannas exhibit the most pronounced relative increases under SSP5-8.5, driven by heightened atmospheric demand and vegetation-induced transpiration. Monthly analyses show pronounced PET increases, particularly in the warmer months (June–August), with projected SSP5-8.5 PET levels reaching peaks of over 500 mm, indicating significant future water demand. AET increases are largest in densely vegetated classes, such as forests (+242.41 mm for Evergreen Needleleaf Forests under SSP5-8.5), while croplands and grasslands exhibit more moderate gains (+249.59 mm and +167.75 mm, respectively). The widening PET-AET gap highlights a growing vulnerability to moisture deficits, particularly in croplands and grasslands. Forested areas, while resilient, face rising water demands, necessitating conservation measures, whereas croplands and grasslands in low-precipitation areas risk soil moisture deficits and productivity declines due to limited adaptive capacity. Non-Vegetated Lands and built-up areas exhibit minimal AET responses (+16.37 mm for Non-Vegetated Lands under SSP5-8.5), emphasizing their limited water cycling contributions despite high PET. This research enhances the understanding of climate-induced changes in water demands across semi-arid regions, providing critical insights into effective and region-specific water resource management strategies.

Source: Forests

DOI: 10.3390/f15122234

Authors: Penghao Ji, Rong Su, Runhong Gao

Institution: Inner Mongolia Agricultural University

Language: English

Topic: Hydrology and Drought Analysis

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,955