Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark. The goal of this is to illustrate when the growth rate, and by extension the infection transmission potential (basic or initial reproduction number), can be estimated in a new outbreak, e.g. after introduction of a new variant of a virus. In particular, we look at the time scale on which this happens in a realistic outbreak to guide future data collection. We find that as long as susceptible depletion is a minor effect, the transients are gone within around 3 weeks corresponding to about 4-5 times the incubation time. We also argue that this result generalizes to other airborne diseases in a fully mixed population.
Source: Journal of Mathematical Biology
Authors: Adam Mielke, Lasse Engbo Christiansen
Institutions: Technical University of Denmark, Statens Serum Institut
Language: English
Subfield: Modeling and Simulation
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $2,890
Funder: Statens Serum Institut
OpenAlex ID: W4405654642