Work

Midterm perspectives on natural gas after the European gas crisis: Reviewing German energy transition studies

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: The situation on the European natural gas market is still tense. Due to the possibility of a gas shortage and higher prices, gas in Germany has been partially replaced by coal and oil. At the same time, Germany is aiming to reach climate neutrality by 2045, which has led to various studies in which climate neutrality scenarios have been modeled. Are the paths described in the studies—especially in the medium term—still valid in view of the new circumstances? In this paper, six studies published since 2021, which present a total of 30 scenarios, are considered. Particular focus is placed on the medium-term consumption of natural gas and hydrogen. The goal is to assess whether the suspended natural gas imports from Russia pose a risk of natural gas shortage and whether increasing LNG imports, increased gas savings, or substitution with (green) hydrogen can fill the supply gap. After examining the supply situation in all scenarios, we further analyzed them to identify the assumptions that have a high impact on the gas supply situation. According to our calculations, in 28 of 30 examined scenarios, a supply gap will occur in at least one year in the next up to 2030.

Source: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2024.115223

Authors: Daniel Brunsch, Julian Radek, Lars Ostmeier, Christoph Weber

Institution: University of Duisburg-Essen

Language: English

Topic: Global Energy Security and Policy

Subfield: General Energy

Field: Energy

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $5,020