Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: province by using fuzzy numbers arithmetic during the years 1401-1383 and random fuzzy forecast in the years 1402-1406.Therefore, the results of the modeling of mortality data in Khuzestan province from 1383 to 1401 and the values of the mortality rate in the five years after that were analyzed.It was predicted by a stochastic time series model. ConclusionFinally, this paper introduces a new fuzzy Lee-Carter model to represent the evolution of the central mortality rate over time.In this model, the possible uncertainty about the coefficient related to the mortality trend over time is considered.The possibility of uncertainty and/or possibility related to the age-dependent coefficients is also considered.The proposed model can have many applications in mammography, actuarial sciences, economics, finance, epidemiology, biology, medicine, or sociology.Government managers can also use mortality forecasts when planning and developing social or health policies or predicting the rate of population aging in the future.
Source: Journal of Statistical Sciences
DOI: 10.61186/jss.18.2.12
Institution: Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4405736246