Work

A hysteretic response of the global carbon cycle to anthropogenic СО2 emissions into the atmosphere

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Idealized numerical experiments were performed with the Earth system model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS ESM) under anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, which increase initially and decrease afterwards. These numerical experiments revealed the inertia of various components of the Earth system, leading to a delay in the response of various components of the carbon cycle relative to the anthropogenic emissions by several decades. The inertia of the carbon cycle components leads to a hysteresis response of its characteristics to non-monotonic in time anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, noticeable, in particular, for the gross primary production and respiration of plants and soil. In turn, the hysteretic response of the characteristics of the global carbon cycle indicates the irreversibility of its changes on the scale of (at least) several decades. The latter should be taken into account when planning adaptation and/or mitigation of climate change.

Source: Известия Российской академии наук Физика атмосферы и океана

DOI: 10.31857/s000235152403003

Authors: A. V. Eliseev, R. D. Gizatullin