Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Since the second quarter, US inflation has fallen as expected, while the job market has cooled more than expected, and under the concern of recession risk, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has risen, and the corresponding US Treasury interest rate has also fallen from a high. The market has basically confirmed that the Federal Reserve will start the process of cutting interest rates in September, but there are still some differences in the judgment of the rate cut and the pace of future rate cuts. From the latest employment and inflation data, although the unemployment rate in July "technically" touched Sam's rule, but from the perspective of the relative pull of supply and demand in the labor market, the current job market cooling is more caused by the increase in labor supply than labor demand, and the recession cycle caused by the sharp contraction of job supply in the past is different, and inflation has fallen as scheduled but there are hidden worries. In particular, the stickiness of service inflation has not been effectively alleviated, and the pressure on housing and transportation prices and costs is still large. Based on this current situation, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will slightly cut interest rates by 25bp in September, which is also more consistent with our expectations.
DOI: 10.54097/a1qdd162
Authors: Zijin Lv, Zhida Zhang
Institution: University of California, Merced
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4405809079