Work

Quantitative assessment of Public Health and Social Measures implementation and relaxation on influenza transmission during COVID-19 in China: SEIABR and GBDT models

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Since 2019, China has implemented Public Health and Social Measures (PHSMs) to manage the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. As the threat from SARS-CoV-2 diminished, these measures were relaxed, leading to increased respiratory infections and strained health care resources by mid-2023. Methods: The study utilised WHO's FluNet and Oxford's COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to assess how policy shifts have affected influenza. It examined changes in influenza incidence, subtype prevalence, and epidemic cycles over three periods: pre-COVID-19 and pre-PHSMs, during COVID-19 and PHSMs, and post-COVID-19 and post-PHSMs. The SEIABR model estimated the transmission probability () and real-time reproduction number () across these periods, while a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) analysed the effects of PHSM indicators on influenza transmission. Results: -value of 2.25). The GBDT model identified testing policies, public information campaigns, and workplace closures as the most impactful PHSM indicators. Conclusions: PHSMs effectively mitigated the spread of influenza, providing a foundation for future policy development to prevent respiratory diseases.

Source: Journal of Global Health

DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.05038