Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: Future uncertainty means that future results or phenomena cannot be accurately predicted.Since deterministic population projection based on such future uncertainty has clear limitations, so many advanced population research institutes and international organizations have emphasized the importance of probabilistic population prediction.It also presents probabilistic predictions in the research areas of climate, process, precipitation, and weather.However, the KOSTAT and various organizations in korea are only in scenario-based deterministic population projection, and only the need for probabilistic population prediction is raised.Therefore, this paper points out that when future uncertainties exist, the limitations and problems of decisive population projection should be examined, and the future population should be examined with probabilistic population prediction, and the results are presented.As a result of the analysis, in terms of the probabilistic confidence interval (5th quartile, 95th quartile), 5,106 to 51.2 million people in 2025, 5,053 to 5,082 million in 2030, 4,829 to 4,8 million in 2040, 4,425 to 45,5 million in 2050, and the last forecast, in 2062, the number below 40 million, is expected to be 37.33 to 33.3 million, and the rapid population deceleration over 33 years was the biggest factor rapidly decline in the fertility rate.
Author: Jinho Oh
Institution: Hanbat National University
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4405850458