Work

Attribution of 2022 August Heavy Precipitation Event in South Korea Using High‐Resolution Pseudo Global Warming Simulations: Sensitivity to Vertical Temperature Changes

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study examines the anthropogenic influences on the heavy precipitation event that occurred in early August 2022, South Korea, using a pseudo global warming (PGW) method with a convection‐permitting model. Pseudo global warming experiments for counterfactual natural non‐warming conditions (NAT) were conducted by removing anthropogenic warming patterns from the observations. The anthropogenic warming patterns were estimated from the differences between Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 historical and historical natural‐only simulations. Two NAT experiments were performed by using the multi‐model mean of all nine models (NAT T ) and the three models with weaker upper tropospheric warming (NAT W ). The results show that atmospheric moisture is reduced in both NAT experiments compared to the current‐condition experiments, but that enhanced convective instability due to upper tropospheric cooling offsets the effect of moisture reduction, resulting in similar precipitation responses. This compensation effect becomes weak in NAT W , indicating the important role of the vertical profile of anthropogenic warming pattern in PGW‐based attribution experiments.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2024gl112392

Authors: Daeun Kwon, Seung‐Ki Min, Minkyu Lee, Ga‐Yeong Seo, Seok‐Woo Son

Institutions: Pohang University of Science and Technology, Korea Institute of Energy Research, Seoul National University

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190