Work

Mean Reversion in Randomized Controlled Trials: Implications for Program Targeting and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Year: 2025

Type: report

Abstract: Eligibility criteria for interventions can induce an Ashenfelter Dip, and subsequent meanreversion may result in improvement over time even absent the intervention.We investigate these dynamics for a food-as-medicine program to treat diabetes, where eligibility required elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c).Both treatment and control groups experienced significant improvements in HbA1c, resulting in an estimated null effect.When we predict improvement using baseline characteristics, we find that subjects unlikely to improve on their own appear to benefit from the program.Our findings have implications for program targeting and estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

DOI: 10.3386/w33369

Authors: Marcella Alsan, John Cawley, Joseph Doyle, Nicholas Skelley

Institutions: National Bureau of Economic Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Advanced Causal Inference Techniques

Subfield: Statistics and Probability

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Good health and well-being, Reduced inequalities

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W4406605883

Cites:

Cited by: 2

Related to: 10