Work

Comparison Between the Simulated Prediction Methods of the Markov and Mixed Models

Year: 2024

Type: article

Abstract: TheaimofthisstudyistomakeacomparisonbetweentheMarkovmodelandthemixedmodeltopredictfuturevalues,basedonmonthlydataoftheexchangeratesoftheUSdollaragainsttheIraqidinarfortheperiodfromJanuary2017toDecember2022. BycomparingthetwomodelsusingMAD,RMSE,andMAPEpredictionaccuracymeasurestofindthemostappropriatemodelforanalyzingthedataofinterest,thestudyconcludedthatthemixedmodel(ARIMA)(0,2,1)withthelowestvaluesofthepredictionaccuracymeasuresisthemostsuitableandappropriatemodelforanalyzingthestudydata,inordertopredictthefutureexchangeratesoftheUSdollaragainsttheIraqidinarcomparedtotheMarkovmodel. Basedonthismodel,theexchangeratesoftheUSdollaragainsttheIraqidinarwerepredicteduntiltheendofJune2023AD,andthepredictivevalueswereconsistentwiththeoriginalvaluesoftheseries,whichindicatestheefficiencyofthemodel. Twostatisticalmodelswereused:theMarkovmodel,theautoregressivemodel,andARIMA.ThetwomodelswereappliedtothedataunderstudyinordertocomparethemwiththeexchangeratesofthedollaragainsttheIraqidinartheimportanceofstudying.

Source: Journal of Al-Nahrain University-Science

DOI: 10.22401/anjs.27.4.03

Author: Shaymaa Riyadh Thanoon

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: diamond

OpenAlex ID: W4406795567

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