Year: 2025
Type: preprint
Abstract: Space weather predictions are necessary to avoid damage caused by intense geomagnetic storms. Such strong storms are usually caused by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) passing at Earth or by the arrival of strong coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To mitigate the damage, the effect of propagating CMEs in the solar wind must be estimated accurately at Earth and other locations. Modelling solar wind accurately is crucial for space weather predictions, as it is the medium for CME propagation. The Icarus heliospheric modelling tool is upgraded to handle dynamic inner heliospheric driving instead of using steady boundary conditions. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solver and the automated grid-adaptivity are adjusted to the latest MPI-AMRVAC version. The inner boundary conditions, prescribed at 0.1 AU for the heliospheric model, are updated time-dependently throughout the simulation. The coronal model is computed repeatedly for selected magnetograms. The particle sampling within MPI-AMRVAC is extended to handle stretched spherical grid information. The solar wind obtained in the simulation is dynamic and shows significant variations throughout the evolution. When comparing the results with the observations, the dynamic solar wind results are more accurate than previous results obtained with purely steady boundary driving. The CMEs propagated through the dynamic solar wind background produce more similar signatures in the time-series data than in the steady solar wind. Dynamic boundary driving in Icarus results in a more self-consistent solar wind evolution in the inner heliosphere. The obtained space weather modelling tool for dynamic solar wind and CME simulations is better suited for space weather forecasting than a steady solar wind model.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Baratashvili, Tinatin, Braileanu, Beatrice Popescu, Bacchini, Fabio, Keppens, Rony, Poedts, Stefaan
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Awards: The standard solar flare model: reloaded!, G1394250481, A new-generation high-order Flux Reconstruction solver to model aerothermodynamics and transition for hypersonic vehicles, EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0, New theory and applications with the regularized Kappa-distribution, G3515907446, G4149537944, G434337789, G4956606109, G6180803798, Multi-scale modeling of solar wind expansion, acceleration, and turbulence, HELIOSKILL: Heliophysics simulations and artificial intelligence, G8301932736, G8863810249, G949029963
OpenAlex ID: W4406884792