A Methodical Approach to the Formation of Danger Zones in the Development of Programs and Methods of Flight Tests of Ground-based Guided Missiles
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: The article presents a methodological approach to the formation of hazard zones during the field testing of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air guided missiles, based on the study of possible scenarios for the formation and development of emergency situations caused by failures of their components. The list of possible failure scenarios and related emergencies is formed based on the results of the circuit analysis of the design of the studied sample and functional and morphological decomposition, with preference given to the functional feature. To form a list of possible emergency situations, a functional and morphological decomposition is carried out with preference given to the functional feature, which results in the distribution of the causes of malfunctions and damage that lead to emergencies into groups. To assess the serviceable condition, the logical-probabilistic method is used, the essence of which is that the structure of the object under study is described by the function of logic algebra, and the quantitative assessment of the serviceable condition is based on the methods of reliability theory. As a result of this transformation, the probability function will already act as a probability of truth as a function of the algebra of logic. In this case, the structure of the object under study is described by a function of the algebra of logic, and the quantitative assessment of the operable state is described by a probabilistic function. It is convenient to represent the function of logic algebra in disjunctive normal form. Each conjunction of the disjunctive normal form represents a path leading to an unsafe state. The choice of an algorithm for the practical transformation of a logic algebra function into a probabilistic function is made taking into account the complexity of the calculations and the requirements for the accuracy of the results. The most suitable algorithms in this sense are the orthogonalization algorithm, the recursive algorithm, and the path-building algorithm. For software implementation, the most convenient is the recurrent algorithm, which is an acceptable compromise between simplicity and result error. As an example, a logical scheme for the formation of possible scenarios for the development of abnormal situations that lead to the transition of a guided missile to an uncontrolled flight is presented.
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4407033987