Work

Flooding the Brains: Natural Disasters, Student Outcomes, and the Urban-Rural Gap in Human Capital

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study provides evidence that natural disasters negatively affect student outcomes, potentially explaining the lower academic achievement of students in rural areas compared to their urban counterparts in developing countries. Using data from the Colombian school census, I estimate a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits variation from an unusual rainfall shock affecting over two million people in both urban and rural Colombia. The results show that these disruptions increase school dropout rates and reduce learning outcomes for at least a decade. The effects are concentrated in rural schools, while students in urban schools remain unaffected. I explore several mechanisms and rule out the possibility that the effects are driven by selective migration or a loss of educational resources. Instead, I find evidence that the rainfall shock exacerbated poverty, pushing poorer rural children into unemployment and longer work hours.

Source: Economic Development and Cultural Change

DOI: 10.1086/735170

Author: Juan Muñoz-Morales

Institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Lille, Institut d'Economie Scientifique Et de Gestion, Lille Économie Management

Language: English

Topic: School Choice and Performance

Subfield: Education

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Quality education, Reduced inequalities, Sustainable cities and communities, No poverty

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W4407173162

FWCI: 3.228

Cites: 35

Cited by: 1

Related to: 10