Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non‐Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid‐latitude temperature variability based on symmetric advection from a non‐symmetric background temperature profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that nonzero skewness and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time‐mean meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an idealized Held‐Suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of time‐mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to nonzero skewness and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in the background temperature profiles.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl111626
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,190
Awards: UNDERSTANDING MULTISTRESSOR AND MULTISCALE DRIVERS OF FEEDBACKS, CASCADING FAILURES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT PATHWAYSWITHIN COMPLEX MSD SYSTEMS, G5830627093, UNDERSTANDING MULTISTRESSOR AND MULTISCALE DRIVERS OF FEEDBACKS, CASCADING FAILURES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT PATHWAYSWITHIN COMPLEX MSD SYSTEMS
OpenAlex ID: W4407186506