Work

Rational Choice on a Hacker Forum: The Effect of Risk and Reward Cues on Target Selection for Account Hijacking

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This online field experiment tested how risk and reward cues in (fake) account credential ads on a hacker forum influence target selection for account hijacking. High-risk posts, warning of account monitoring, received fewer views, while high-reward posts, promising benefits, attracted more. An unexpected law enforcement operation targeting an illicit marketplace created a natural experiment, triggering increased removals of high-risk posts by forum administrators, which slowed over time. These findings suggest hacker forum users respond rationally to risk and reward cues in target selection, and forum administrators adapt their moderation efforts in response to external threats to reduce perceived risk.

Source: Deviant Behavior

DOI: 10.1080/01639625.2025.2459699

Authors: Danielle Stibbe, Stijn Ruiter, Wouter Steenbeek, Asier Moneva

Institutions: Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Hague University of Applied Sciences

Language: English

Topic: Cybercrime and Law Enforcement Studies

Subfield: Information Systems

Field: Computer Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Funder: Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek