Work

Defining the high-risk category of patients with cutaneous melanoma: a practical tool based on prognostic modeling

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Introduction Although most cutaneous melanoma (CM) in its early stages is treatable, the risk of recurrence remains high and there is a particular ambiguity on patients prognosis. This drives to identification of prognostic biomarkers for predicting CM recurrence to guide appropriate treatment in patients with localized melanoma. Aim This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for assessing the risk of recurrence in patients with CM, enabling prompt prognosis-driven further clinical decision-making for high-risk patients. Materials and methods This case-control study included 172 patients with CM recurrence (high-risk group) and 30 patients with stable remission (low-risk group) 3 years after primary diagnosis. The impact of sex, age at diagnosis, anatomical site, histological characteristics (the histological type, pathological stage, ulceration; the depth of invasion, mitotic rate, lymphovascular invasion, neurotropism, association with a nevus, tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte density, tumor regression and BRAF codon 600 mutation status) on CM recurrence was evaluated. Results Five independent variables, including nodal status, a high mitotic rate, Breslow thickness, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion and regression features were identified as the most significant. A 5-factor logistic regression model was developed to assess the risk of melanoma recurrence. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 86.1% and 72.7%, respectively. Conclusion The developed model, which relies on routine histological features, allows the identification of individuals at high risk of CM recurrence to tailor their further management.

Source: Frontiers in Molecular Biosciences

DOI: 10.3389/fmolb.2025.1543148