Forecasting Karachi’s Air Temperature Variation: Leveraging Mobile and Multimedia Dataset for Global Warming Insights
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: In Karachi, the transport and building industries have a major impact on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and greenhouse gas emissions. This study is innovative in that it examines how air temperature changes over time and forecasts the maximum and minimum temperatures in Karachi. Specifically, it looks at 60 years’ worth of mean monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures in Karachi, spanning from (1961 to 2020) dataset classes. The monthly average air temperature in Karachi, both at its minimum and maximum, remains constant. Using dataset from the Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) and, the ARMA (p, q) model technique was used to assess forecasting and modelling the behavior of the maximum and minimum air temperatures in Karachi. The least values Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian Schwarz information criterion (SIC), and the Hannan Quinn information criterion (HIC) are used to describe how adequate the model is. Additionally, the Durbin-Watson (DW) test is used. The average monthly maximum and minimum air temperature in Karachi are strongly correlated, as indicated by DW values (<2). The lowest and maximum monthly average air temperatures in Karachi are predicted using diagnostic checking techniques such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Theil’s U-Statistics. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the air temperature and previously measured values, with Theil’s U-Statistics values for each month lying close to zero. This study is a great resource for observing how air temperature affects global warming. This study also highlights the the innovative aspect of utilizing vast datasets, possibly including those from mobile and multimedia sources, to address a critical environmental issue. It also emphasizes the predictive modelling aspect of your study, which is central to understanding and mitigating global warming effects.
Source: Journal of Mobile Multimedia
Authors: Asma Zaffar, Shakil Ahmed, Aysha Rafique, Muhammad Imran, Muhammad Amir, Vali Uddin
Institution: Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4407244277