Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This study addresses the critical need for improved demand forecasting models that can accurately predict energy consumption, particularly in the context of varying geographical and climatic conditions. The work introduces a novel demand forecasting model that integrates clustering techniques and feature engineering into neural network regression, with a specific focus on incorporating correlations with air temperature. Evaluation of the model’s efficacy utilized a benchmark dataset from Tetouan, Morocco, where existing forecasting methods yielded RMSE values ranging from 6429 to 10,220 [MWh]. In contrast, the proposed approach achieved a significantly lower RMSE of 5168, indicating its superiority. Subsequent application of the model to forecast demand in Astana, Kazakhstan, as a case study, showcased its efficacy further. Comparative analysis against a baseline neural network method revealed a notable improvement, with the proposed model exhibiting a MAPE of 5.19% compared to the baseline’s 17.36%. These findings highlight the potential of the proposed approach to enhance demand forecasting accuracy, particularly across diverse geographical contexts, by leveraging climate-related inputs, the methodology also demonstrates potential for broader applications, such as flood forecasting, agricultural yield prediction, or water resource management.
Source: Energy Informatics
Institutions: Astana IT University, University of Genoa, University of Edinburgh
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,490
OpenAlex ID: W4407341008