Work

Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This article investigates the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on maritime sector stocks using an event study approach, highlighting the sector's vulnerability during crises. Analyzing 32 companies across container, tanker, and dry bulk sub-sectors, we employ the Fama and French three-factor model to assess how maritime stocks respond to conflict-related news. Our findings reveal predominantly adverse stock reactions, particularly in the container and tanker segments, with the dry bulk sub-sector less affected. Notably, container shipping stocks showed significant declines following missile attacks on cargo vessels. Conversely, the market response to positive news, such as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, was muted, suggesting that good news impacts trading behaviour less than bad news. This study underscores the importance of monitoring news during major crises for theoretical and practical implications in the maritime industry, as it significantly influences stock performance. • Analysis of maritime stock reactions the Israel-Hamas conflict. • Uses event study methodology. • Explores both positive and negative news. • The container sub-sector experienced significant negative effects. • Underscores the importance of monitoring the news during major crises.

Source: Journal of Transport Geography

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104122

Authors: Mutaju Isaack Marobhe, Jonathan Mukiza Kansheba, Ziaul Haque Munim

Institutions: University of Agder, University of North Carolina at Pembroke, University of South-Eastern Norway

Language: English

Topic: Market Dynamics and Volatility

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,990