Work

An agent-based model of farmer decision making: Application to shared water resources in Arid and semi-arid regions

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The study presents an agent-based modelling framework that integrates behavioural and biophysical models to investigate shared irrigation water management in an arid region. The behavioural model simulates farmers' decisions about their water irrigation sources (dam or groundwater) and whether to continue cultivating in the face of drought. This model was parameterised using survey data. The biophysical model component quantifies the impact of water availability and irrigation sources on soil salinity accumulation and its effects on crop productivity. Applied to the Al Haouz Basin, in Morocco, the integrated model shows that increased groundwater access through water abstraction authorization can initially boost productivity but ultimately lead to widespread salinisation and farm abandonment, particularly under climate change scenarios. The results highlight the complex trade-offs between short-term gains and long-term sustainability, emphasising the need for holistic water governance policies that balance individual and collective interests.

Source: Agricultural Water Management

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109357