Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: . Heavy rainfall events and associated natural hazards pose a major threat to rail transport and infrastructure. In this study, the correlation between heavy rainfall events and three associated natural hazards were investigated using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The spatio-temporal linkage of a damage database of DB Netz AG and the CatRaRE-catalogue of the German Weather Service revealed that almost every part of the German rail network was affected by at least one heavy rainfall event between 2011–2021. Twenty-three percent of the flood events, 14 % of the gravitational mass movements and 2 % of the tree fall events occurred after a heavy rainfall event. The random effects logistic regression models showed that a heavy rainfall event significantly increases the probability of occurrence of a flood (tree fall) by a factor of 34.29 (39.85), respectively, with no significant increase for gravitational mass movements. The heavy rainfall index and the 21-days antecedent precipitation index were determined as characteristics of the heavy rainfall events with the strongest impact on all three natural hazards. The results underline the importance of gaining more precise knowledge about the impact of climate triggers on natural hazard-related disturbances, to make rail transport more resilient.
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,553
OpenAlex ID: W4407552058