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U.S.–China agricultural trade and environmental outcomes: The case of nutrient runoff to the Gulf of Mexico

Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: We quantify the relationship between nitrogen (N) runoff to the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. agricultural production, and exports to China using an integrated assessment model. We show that a 25% Chinese tariff on U.S. soybean and corn increases annual N runoff to the Gulf by 800 metric tons (0.2%) as soybean production in the Mississippi River Basin is displaced with more N‐intensive crops. Results also indicate that reducing N runoff to the Gulf by 10% decreases U.S. corn export to China by 14.5%, similar to the effect of a 25% Chinese tariff on corn and soybeans.
DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13501
Authors: Yuelu Xu, Levan Elbakidze, Philip W. Gassman, Haw Yen, Yongxi Ma, Jason A. Hubbart, Jeffery G. Arnold
Institutions: Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research, West Virginia University, Iowa State University, Bayer (United States), Auburn University, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Agricultural Research Service, Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory
Language: English
Subfield: Safety Research
Open Access status: bronze
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, State Council of Higher Education for Virginia, West Virginia Higher Education Policy Commission, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Foreign Agricultural Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province
OpenAlex ID: W4407673586
FWCI: 3.151
Cites: 55
Cited by: 3
Related to: 10