Work

Climate Models Struggle to Simulate Observed North Pacific Jet Trends, Even Accounting for Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We show that the wintertime (December‐January‐February) North Pacific jet in ERA5 has shifted northwards over the satellite‐era (1979–2023) at a faster rate than any of the state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models used in this study. Differences in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) trends can only partially explain the discrepancy in jet trends between models and observations and a small minority of simulations forced with observed SSTs match the magnitude of the observed jet trend. However, analysis of longer‐term jet variability in reanalysis suggests that the jet trend has not clearly emerged from multi‐decadal internal climate variability. Consequently, it is unclear whether the difference in observed and modeled jet trends arises due to differing responses to anthropogenic forcing or overly weak long‐term internal variability in models. These results have important implications for future climate projections for North America and motivate further research into the underlying causes of long‐term jet trends.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2024gl113561

Authors: Matthew Patterson, Christopher H. O’Reilly

Institution: University of Reading

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190