Work

The Zweitstimme Forecast for the German Federal Election 2025: Coalition Majorities and Vacant Districts

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This article forecasts the German Federal Election of 2025. We used our previous forecasting models to provide national-level forecasts for party-vote shares and district-level outcomes for candidate votes. We show that the combination of both models allowed us to calculate forecasts for both coalition majorities in Parliament and “vacant districts” under recent electoral reforms.

Source: PS Political Science & Politics

DOI: 10.1017/s1049096525000150

Authors: Cornelius Erfort, Lukas F. Stoetzer, Thomas Gschwend, Elias Koch, Simon Munzert, Hannah Rajski

Institutions: Witten/Herdecke University, University of Mannheim, Hertie School

Language: English

Topic: Electoral Systems and Political Participation

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,550

OpenAlex ID: W4407785711