Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Armed conflicts are characterized by changes in the number of fatalities that may span different orders of magnitude. A change in fatalities, crossing an order of magnitude, may be accompanied by surprise. The paper suggests estimating the probability of extreme changes in fatality (i.e., the surprise) using a physics-informed approach. More specifically, the paper aims to estimate the probability of an unseen event where the increase in the death toll crosses an order of magnitude. The perspective is presented and illustrated with a single case: the postmortem analysis of the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel.
Source: Frontiers in Physics
Author: Yair Neuman
Institution: Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,077
OpenAlex ID: W4407799467