A Multi-Regional CGE Model for the Optimization of Land Resource Allocation: A Simulation of the Impact of High-Quality Development Policies in China
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Land, as the foundation of all productive activities, plays a crucial role in achieving high-quality development across regions. China’s current land allocation model, which focuses on land quota distribution, has several drawbacks and does not address the conflict between limited land availability and increasing demand. To maximize land use benefits, it is essential to develop scientifically sound allocation plans that effectively adjust land structure and layout. However, existing research often relies on single-attribute geographic or linear programming models which do not meet the multidimensional needs of modern territorial planning. Additionally, commonly used CGE models often overlook the critical role of construction land. To address these gaps, this study introduces a multi-scale, multi-type China Territorial Spatial Planning Simulation Model (CTSPM). This model integrates cultivated, forest, grassland, and construction land, simulating the land use changes driven by socioeconomic impacts through price mechanisms. By employing a land use transition matrix, the CTSPM enhances practical applicability and improves predictions for residential and non-agricultural construction land. It provides a scientific tool for evaluating land policies, supporting interdepartmental negotiations on land quotas, and contributing to natural resource governance and territorial spatial planning. Using the CTSPM, we simulated various high-quality development scenarios and derived the following conclusions: (1) An increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) significantly boosts regional economic development and the demand for non-agricultural land; a 1% increase in TFP leads to a 1.48% rise in actual GDP and a 0.19% increase in total non-agricultural land demand. (2) At the regional level, eastern regions experience a greater impact on total land demand compared to central and western regions. (3) In terms of land use types, cultivated and grassland areas show a decreasing trend, while forest and construction land areas are increasing.
Source: Land
DOI: 10.3390/land14030450
Authors: Luge Wen, Tiyan Shen, Yuran Huang
Institutions: Peking University, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Finance
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,137
Funder: Beijing Social Science Fund
OpenAlex ID: W4407808386