The Fastest Path to Discovering the Second Electromagnetic Counterpart to a Gravitational Wave Event
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The discovery of a second electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave event represents a critical goal in the field of multi-messenger astronomy. In order to determine the optimal strategy for achieving this goal, we perform comprehensive simulations comparing two potential paths forward: continuing the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run, O4, versus temporarily shutting down the detectors for upgrades before beginning the next observing run, O5. Our simulations incorporate current O4 instrument sensitivities and duty cycles, as well as projected configurations for O5, while accounting for variables such as binary neutron star merger rates, system properties, viewing angles, dust extinction, and kilonova (KN) observables. Our results indicate that a KN discovery would occur 12 5 − 125 + 253 days (middle 50% interval) sooner in O5 compared to O4, suggesting that extending O4 would lead to faster discovery if the shutdown period between runs is >4 months. Moreover, for 88% of our simulations, continuing O4 results in earlier KN discovery when compared to the expected two-year shutdown between O4 and O5. Given these findings and the critical importance of avoiding a >10 yr gap between first and second electromagnetic counterpart discoveries, we suggest LVK consider extending O4 operations for as long as feasible prior to shutting down for critical upgrades.
Authors: Ved G. Shah, Ryan J. Foley, Gautham Narayan
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,325
Awards: Discovering the Most Enigmatic Transient Phenomena in the Time-Domain, WoU-MMA: Multiple Approaches to Multi-Messenger Astronomy, G3062666434, HEROIC - Hop Enabled Realtime Observatory Information and Coordination, G440604560, Frameworks: SCiMMA: Real-time Orchestration of Multi-Messenger Astrophysical Observations, G6671297155, CAREER: Understanding the Nature of Dark Energy with the Young Supernova Experiment and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time
OpenAlex ID: W4407921820