Work

Age-Specific Mortality Forecasting in Kazakhstan: Alternative Approaches to the Lee–Carter Model

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Age-specific mortality forecasting in Kazakhstan plays a crucial role in public health planning and healthcare management. By predicting mortality rates across different age groups, policymakers, healthcare providers, and researchers can make informed decisions that improve health outcomes and allocate resources more effectively. We analyzed Kazakhstan's annual mortality data from 1991 to 2023. The Lee-Carter model and its extensions were used to predict mortality. But they did not give satisfactory results for predicting mortality. Including external socio-economic factors in the model did not improve the forecasting accuracy. The accuracy of the forecast increased with a separate analysis of the subpopulations of children and adults. This was because, since 1991 in the children subpopulation there has been a pronounced linear downward trend, while in the adult subpopulation the global trend in mortality dynamics is nonlinear. As a result, it is possible to make forecasts for 7 years with a high degree of accuracy (error < 10%) and forecast for the 8th, 9th, and 10th years with a "good" degree of accuracy (error 10-20%). In 2024-2033, a further mortality decline is expected in most age groups. Only in groups over 80 years old is a slight increase in mortality predicted in the coming year, but then a downward trend will be observed again.

Source: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

DOI: 10.3390/ijerph22030346

Authors: Berik Koichubekov, Bauyrzhan Omarkulov, Meruert Mukhanova, Rimma Zakirova

Institution: Karaganda Medical University

Language: English

Topic: Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Subfield: Demography

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,016