Work

Analysis of risk factors and predictive value of a nomogram model for sepsis in patients with diabetic foot

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: BACKGROUND Sepsis is a severe complication in hospitalized patients with diabetic foot (DF), often associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite its clinical significance, limited tools exist for early risk prediction. AIM To identify key risk factors and evaluate the predictive value of a nomogram model for sepsis in this population. METHODS This retrospective study included 216 patients with DF admitted from January 2022 to June 2024. Patients were classified into sepsis (n = 31) and non-sepsis (n = 185) groups. Baseline characteristics, clinical parameters, and laboratory data were analyzed. Independent risk factors were identified through multivariable logistic regression, and a nomogram model was developed and validated. The model's performance was assessed by its discrimination (AUC), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration plots), and clinical utility [decision curve analysis (DCA)]. RESULTS The multivariable analysis identified six independent predictors of sepsis: Diabetes duration, DF Texas grade, white blood cell count, glycated hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, and albumin. A nomogram integrating these factors achieved excellent diagnostic performance, with an AUC of 0.908 (95%CI: 0.865-0.956) and robust internal validation (AUC: 0.906). Calibration results showed strong agreement between predicted and observed probabilities (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.926). DCA demonstrated superior net benefit compared to extreme intervention scenarios, highlighting its clinical utility. CONCLUSION The nomogram prediction model, based on six key risk factors, demonstrates strong predictive value, calibration, and clinical utility for sepsis in patients with DF. This tool offers a practical approach for early risk stratification, enabling timely interventions and improved clinical management in this high-risk population.

Source: World Journal of Diabetes

DOI: 10.4239/wjd.v16.i4.104088

Authors: Wen-Wen Han, Jian-Jiang Fang

Institutions: Ningbo University, Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital

Language: English

Topic: Diabetic Foot Ulcer Assessment and Management

Subfield: Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: diamond

Funder: Università degli Studi di Torino