Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Goldilocks zone' and therefore increasing the risk of MBV transmission.Methods: Index Q is the basic offspring number derived from an ODE system that characterises the mosquito life-cycle in terms of temprature, humidity, and precipitation.We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and aegypti abundance data to fit two unknown scaling parameters of Index Q and propose an approximate global solution for making projections in cases where local data is unavailable.Results: We generate results for abundance data from four urban areas in the USA and India.These results showcase very good correlation ( ≥ 0.78) between empirical abundance and Index Q projections.These local results are pooled to form the basis of our ABC fitting procedure, which leads to our approximate global projection.We show that this approximation recovers many important spatio-temporal features of aegypti distribution in Brazil (seasonality; low abundance in the south/southeast; high abundance in the north/northwest/west).Global Q projections are highest where aegypti-based MBV burden is highest (sub-Saharan Africa, India, and Southeast Asia).Between 1979-2023, Q has grown the most in North America, Europe, and the Caucases, where aegypti-based MBV burden has increased in recent decades.Discussion: Using only temperature, humidity, and precipitation, we were able to use Index Q to predict with relatively high accuracy the mosquito abundance dynamics of four spatially and climatically heterogeneous locations across various time-frames.Our results are limited by the few datasets available (four) and their lack of spatial diversity (USA and India).Future research could construct more accurate global approximations by analysing more sites with greater climatic diversity. Conclusion:We use climate and aegypti abundance data from four cities to estimate two unknown scaling parameters of Index Q.We then generalise Q and project the mosquito reproductive potential and abundance dynamics worldwide.Climate trends between 1979-2023 demonstrate the increase in aegypti reproductive potential, especially in those areas not presently endemic to epidemiogically relevant aegypti-based MBVs.The identification of these areas and any trends therein with respect to their spatial distribution can help scientists and public health professionals to model and efficiently implement coherent, evidence-based mosquito control and outbreak mitigation measures.
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,900
OpenAlex ID: W4408046625