Without Roots: The Political Consequences of Collective Economic Shocks
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: While an abundance of scholarly work investigates how economic shocks influence the political behavior of affected individuals, we know much less about their *collective* effects. Exploiting the sudden onset of a plant disease epidemic in Puglia, Italy—where the plant pathogen *Xylella fastidiosa* devastated centuries-old olive groves—we explore the collective effects of economic shocks. By combining quantitative difference-in-differences analysis of municipal data with a novel case selection strategy for qualitative fieldwork, we document the hardship caused by the outbreak, and estimate a 2.2-percentage-point increase in far-right vote share. We show that pre-existing public service deprivation moderates the shock's political consequences through a community narrative of state neglect. These findings highlight that pre-existing community conditions shape the political consequences of economic shocks, and that plant disease epidemics—which are becoming more prevalent due to climate change—have important political effects.
Institutions: Bocconi University, The University of Texas at Austin
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,550
OpenAlex ID: W4408237466