Work

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm‐based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation‐temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection‐permitting resolution. We simulated five‐member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo‐global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub‐CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2024gl113126

Authors: Tyler J. Mercurio, Christina M. Patricola

Institutions: Iowa State University, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190