Can curbside bicycle lanes buffer COVID-19 ridership losses? A case study from Melbourne, Australia
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Many cities implemented temporary or permanent improvements in safe cycling infrastructure during COVID-19 in a bid to encourage cycling. However, many studies found that cycling during COVID-19 was primarily for recreation and exercise. In contrast, cycling for commuting declined, largely because commuting overall (especially into cities) has been partially replaced by working from home. In 2020 and 2021, the City of Melbourne fast-tracked a range of cycling infrastructure upgrades in an effort to attract more workers back into the city using this sustainable transport mode. This study examines whether trends in weekday cycling near the city are beginning to recover from the impacts of the pandemic, using bicycle count data from 15 automatic counters within 5km of the city center. In addition, this paper quantifies the impact of COVID-era infrastructure upgrades. Negative binomial regression modelling found that weekday bicycle counts were significantly dampened during lockdown and remain 31% below pre-COVID levels through 2022. More importantly, even when controlling for lockdown stage and seasonality, counters near upgraded infrastructure had 26% higher average daily counts compared to non-upgraded sites. This increase is significant given that overall demand for travel into the city has decreased significantly. These findings are particularly relevant for cities that are grappling with whether to continue with temporary cycling infrastructure upgrades and cities that are struggling to encourage workers back into cities without relying on car travel. This study suggests that providing upgrades to cycling networks is an effective tool in this effort.
Institution: Monash University
Language: English
Subfield: Transportation
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,270
OpenAlex ID: W4408402994