Assessing the economic impact of droughts in Europe in a changing climate: A multi-sectoral analysis at regional scale
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Study regionThe EU member states plus UK, Norway, and Switzerland.Study FocusIn the recent past, Europe has faced several extreme drought events that have generated high economic losses in several socioeconomic sectors. Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and intensity of these events. In order to increase drought resilience through adaptation it is essential to discern regional and sectoral drought risk patterns that account for the specific characteristics of local territories. In this study, we integrate drought hazard modelling with regional exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment to quantify drought impacts in drought-sensitive sectors across 1366 administrative territorial units of Europe, considering present climate conditions and a range of global warming levels.New hydrological insights for the regionOur results show a strong regional disparity in future drought impacts, that is amplified by the level of global warming, with an overall increase in drought losses in southern, southeastern, and western regions of Europe and a decrease in northern regions. Regional differences depend on the strength of the drought hazard signal, modulated by the exposure and vulnerability of socioeconomic sectors. In some of the most impacted regions, economic losses could become substantial, with expected annual losses of 1 to 2% of regional GDP, while the agriculture sector could lose 15% of its gross value added with high levels of global warming.
Authors: Corrado Motta, Gustavo Naumann, Diego Gomez, Giuseppe Formetta, Luc Feyen
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,600
Award: G3601513323
OpenAlex ID: W4408407339