Constructing a geography of heavy-tailed flood distributions: insights from common streamflow dynamics
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: . Heavy-tailed flood distributions depict the higher occurrence probability of extreme floods. Understanding the spatial distribution of heavy tail floods is essential for effective risk assessment. Conventional methods often encounter data limitations, leading to uncertainty across regions. To address this challenge, we utilize hydrograph recession exponents derived from common streamflow dynamics, which have shown to be a robust indicator of flood tail propensity across analyses with varying data lengths. Analyzing extensive datasets covering the Atlantic Europe, Northern Europe, and the continental United States, we uncover distinct patterns: prevalent heavy tails in the Atlantic Europe, diverse behavior in the continental United States, and predominantly nonheavy tails in Northern Europe. The regional tail behavior has been observed in relation to the interplay between terrain and meteorological characteristics, and we further conducted quantitative analyses to assess the influence of hydroclimatic conditions using Köppen classifications. Notably, temporal variations in catchment storage are a crucial mechanism driving highly nonlinear catchment responses that favor heavy-tailed floods, often intensified by concurrent dry periods and high temperatures. Furthermore, this mechanism is influenced by various flood generation processes, which can be shaped by both hydroclimatic seasonality and catchment scale. These insights deepen our understanding of the interplay between climate, physiographical settings, and flood behavior, while highlighting the utility of hydrograph recession exponents in flood hazard assessment.
Language: English
Subfield: Water Science and Technology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,725
OpenAlex ID: W4408672522