Get started
Work

Transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox epidemic in New York City

Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: The 2022 global mpox epidemic was caused by transmission of MPXV clade IIb, lineage B.1 through sexual contact networks, with New York City (NYC) experiencing the first and largest outbreak in the United States. By performing phylogeographic analysis of MPXV genomes sampled from 757 individuals in NYC between April 2022 and April 2023, and 3,287 MPXV genomes sampled around the world, we identify over 200 introductions of MPXV into NYC with at least 84 leading to onward transmission. These infections primarily occurred among men who have sex with men, transgender women and nonbinary individuals. Through a comparative analysis with HIV in NYC, we find that both MPXV and HIV genomic cluster sizes are best fit by scale-free distributions, and that people in MPXV clusters are more likely to have previously received an HIV diagnosis and be a member of a recently growing HIV transmission cluster. We model MPXV transmission through sexual contact networks and show that highly connected individuals would be disproportionately infected at the start of an epidemic, which would likely result in the exhaustion of the most densely connected parts of the network, and, therefore, explain the rapid expansion and decline of the NYC outbreak. By coupling the genomic epidemiology of MPXV and HIV with epidemic modeling, we demonstrate that the transmission dynamics of MPXV in NYC can be understood by general principles of sexually transmitted pathogens.
DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-03526-9
Authors: Jonathan E. Pekar, Yu Wang, Jade C. Wang, Yucai Shao, Faten Taki, Lisa A. Forgione, Helly Amin, Tyler Clabby, Kimberly Johnson, Lucia V. Torian, Sarah L. Braunstein, Preeti Pathela, Enoma Omoregie, Scott Hughes, Marc A. Suchard, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, Philippe Lemey, Joel O. Wertheim
Institutions: University of California San Diego, University of Edinburgh, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, University of California, Los Angeles, University of California, Irvine, Rega Institute for Medical Research, KU Leuven
Language: English
Subfield: Virology
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $12,690
Funders: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Advanced Micro Devices, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, University of California, San Diego, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Awards: G2314779826, G2351357509, G3517981808, Automation and Evaluation of Real-Time Transmission Network-Based HIV Prevention Services in New York City, G4207000129, G4513716323, G497702389, Statistical innovation to integrate sequences and phenotypes for scalable phylodynamic inference, G6784552912, G7899669597, G8563367456, G8632199966, Center for Viral Systems Biology (CViSB), San Diego Center for AIDS Research (SD CFAR)
OpenAlex ID: W4408819237
FWCI: 7.916
Cites: 78
Cited by: 18
Related to: 10