Work

Impact of Carbon Neutrality Goals on China’s Coal Industry: Mechanisms and Evidence

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: China’s coal industry is reckoned as one of the topmost contributors to global carbon emissions, and as a result, poses severe challenges both to human health and climate change mitigation efforts. Achieving carbon neutrality requires thorough analyses of mechanisms driving the coal sector’s transition. This study employs a structural model to investigate the transmission pathways through/by which the “dual carbon” goals influence the coal industry, using a policy text quantification approach to assess specific carbon reduction measures. Findings reveal that the impact of the “dual carbon” target on the coal industry operates through multiple pathways. Carbon reduction policies significantly enhance technical advancements, social and economic factors, energy-saving measures, and alternative energy development, all of which indirectly affect coal supply. Notably, the pathway from coal demand to coal supply shows a high path coefficient of 1.121, far surpassing the path coefficient from factor input to coal supply, measured at 0.169. This highlights coal demand as the pivotal intermediary variable in determining the “dual carbon” target’s impact on the coal industry. While current technologies and alternative energy sources have limited immediate effects on coal supply, they hold significant potential as transformative factors in the future.

Source: Energies

DOI: 10.3390/en18071672

Authors: Shihua Ren, Xiaomiao Jiao, Dezhi Zheng, Yaning Zhang, Heping Xie, Rui Zhang

Institutions: China Coal Research Institute (China), China University of Mining and Technology - Beijing, Shenzhen University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change Policy and Economics

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137