Mathematical Modeling of Safety Control Processes at Nuclear Power Plants
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This paper examines the use of mathematical modeling to enhance the safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The study demonstrates that reaction time plays a crucial role in accident prevention: if an operator takes action within 30 seconds, the probability of preventing an accident is 95%, whereas a 5-minute delay reduces this probability to 30%. The impact of preventive maintenance and system redundancy on reliability is also analyzed. Without maintenance, the probability of equipment failure after 1000 hours of operation reaches 40%, whereas regular inspections reduce this to 15%, and redundancy further lowers it to 8%. Additionally, cascading failures were studied, showing that as the number of interdependent components increases from 3 to 10, the risk of total system failure rises from 15% to 80%. The paper provides practical recommendations for improving NPP reliability, including the automation of monitoring, the implementation of predictive algorithms, and the use of machine learning for failure forecasting.
Source: NNC RK Bulletin
Authors: Y. М. Yelekeyev, B. P. Stepanov
Institution: Tomsk Polytechnic University
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4409163012