Likelihoods of compound dry-hot-windy events are projected to increase under global warming
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Dry, hot, and windy conditions are meteorological factors that can affect vegetation variability. Moreover, the combination of them, as represented by concurrences of low relative humidity , high temperature, and high wind speed , can lead to even higher impacts on agricultural production or wildfires, which is still under-assessed. Here we investigate spatial pattern of and changes in the compound dry-hot-windy (DHW) events in historical periods (1951–2014) and future periods (2037–2100) across global areas (including crop regions and burned areas) based on the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) and climate model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6). An increase in the likelihood (or frequency) of compound DHW events is observed in historical periods and can be even higher in the future across global land areas. Specifically, the projected frequency of compound DHW events in the future period under the SSP585 scenario is around 2.5 times the value in historical periods. Moreover, an increase in compound DHW events is also projected in ten main wheat exporters, in particular for Europe, Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil. Over global burned areas, the higher risk of compound DHW events during fire seasons is also projected in the future. Findings from this study can be useful for agricultural planning and natural resources management under a changing climate.
Source: Atmospheric Research
Authors: Qian Ma, Zengchao Hao, Yitong Zhang, Yuting Pang
Institution: Beijing Normal University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,310
Award: G1177495786
OpenAlex ID: W4409187489