Work

Coastal zones vulnerability evaluation in the southern Baltic Sea: Shoreline dynamics and land use/land cover changes over five decades

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Over the past century, coastal zones have experienced significant population growth and rapid development, often conflicting with these environments' dynamic and sensitive nature. The present study investigated five decades (1972-2023) of shoreline dynamics and land-use/land-cover (LULC) transformations along three study sectors located on a 47 km stretch of the Southern Baltic coastline. The research employed eleven multispectral Landsat MSS/TM/OLI images within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to analyze coastline variations and LULC patterns. Results showed significant accretion in Sector I (Usedom), while Sectors II and III (Wolin) experienced marked erosion. Over the entire study period, 29.59 % (3.21 km), 39.90 % (4.51 km), and 67.54 % (9.45 km) of the shorelines in Sector-I, Sector-II, and Sector-III experienced erosion. The distance correlation showed that hydrometeorological variables associated with wind-wave dynamics, exerted a stronger influence on shoreline changes. The LULC change analysis highlighted a decline in forest cover (-846.86 ha) and increased built-up areas (+1137.86) across all sectors. These results enabled the identification of four coastal vulnerability zones-one in Usedom and three in Wolin-characterized by pronounced erosion, forest degradation, and urban expansion. These findings can inform coastal management strategies by identifying high-risk zones, guiding sustainable development practices, and prioritizing areas for conservation and intervention.

Source: The Science of The Total Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179345

Authors: Kamran Tanwari, Paweł Terefenko, Xiaohao Shi, Jakub Śledziowski, Andrzej Giza

Institution: University of Szczecin

Language: English

Topic: Coastal and Marine Dynamics

Subfield: Earth-Surface Processes

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,250