Work

A Power-Cardioid candidate for wind direction modelling motivated by two South African case studies

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Wind energy claims a positive image globally; therefore, accurate modelling of wind direction at generation sites accurately can enhance the potential of this green energy source. The uncertain nature of wind direction can be modelled through probability distributions; in this paper, we propose a flexible yet simple distribution, namely the Power-Cardioid distribution, as an alternative and implementable candidate to model wind direction. After discussing some characteristics, the performance of the Power-Cardioid distribution is evaluated via a simulation study and applied to datasets of two wind farms in South Africa. The numerical results demonstrate that this distribution is a promising and exciting new candidate compared to well-known models within circular statistics.

Source: Afrika Matematika

DOI: 10.1007/s13370-025-01306-9

Authors: Delene van Wyk-de Ridder, Najmeh Nakhaei Rad, Mohammad Arashi, Johan Ferreira, Andriette Bekker

Institutions: University of Cape Town, University of Pretoria, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

Language: English

Topic: Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications

Subfield: Statistics and Probability

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,290