Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Insurance safeguards property and health while mitigating economic risks, driving research to optimize mechanisms through mathematical tools. This paper examines the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) and Law of Large Numbers (LLN) in insurance, highlighting their complementary roles: CLT models loss distributions (e.g., approximating total risks as normal for capital reserve estimation) and LLN stabilizes long-term claims (e.g., balancing premium affordability and profitability through risk pooling). Empirical analyses across auto, health, and life insurance demonstrate CLT quantifying extreme payout probabilities (95% confidence intervals for catastrophic losses) and LLN optimizing premium structures via historical claims convergence. Copula theory extends traditional independence assumptions for correlated risks (e.g., regional disaster impacts on crop insurance), while machine learning (e.g., random forests) enhances personalized risk predictions through training on multi-source data (demographics, telematics). The synergy of CLT and LLN strengthens capital allocation and solvency frameworks, offering a robust mathematical foundation for sustainable, data-driven risk governance. By integrating classical theory with modern techniques like high-dimensional Copula models and reinforcement learning, this study advances dynamic premium adjustments, real-time capital optimization, and compliance strategies. These innovations address emerging challenges in InsurTech, such as managing climate-induced risks (e.g., flood insurance) and ensuring transparency in AI-driven underwriting systems.
Source: Theoretical and Natural Science
Author: Ruoyu Huang
Language: English
Topic: Probability and Risk Models
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4409549950