Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shock waves have severe space weather effects in the near-Earth space. Therefore, predicting the propagation and arrival time of the CME/shock is an important component of the space weather forecast. In this work, the analytical solutions for the propagation of blast waves are reorganized and derived, and a novel solution is obtained to describe their propagation in the background flow field moving at a constant speed. This novel solution can be used to predict the propagation and arrival time of the CME-associated shock waves in both the coronal and interplanetary medium. The input parameters of this novel solution are the shock wave’s initial velocity, the piston-driving time in an analog of the initial blast process, and the background solar wind velocity. Based on the same initial conditions, we compare quantitatively the propagation processes of shock waves predicted by this novel solution and those predicted by other already existing models of the blast wave theory. The obtained results demonstrate the feasibility of this novel solution in predicting the arrival time of the interplanetary shock in the future.
Source: The Astrophysical Journal
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,499
OpenAlex ID: W4409650509