Statistical precursors of solar flares on September 6, 2017, March 23 and May 1, 2024
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: We present a study of changes in the properties of small-scale fluctuations in the probability density of solar X-ray fluxes by the GOES instrument, with the aim of identifying a set of repeating events that may be precursors to solar flares . The X-ray data obtained before the solar flares that occurred on September 6, 2017, March 23, and May 1, 2024 were considered. Our results reveal that, within a time window ranging from approximately three to five days before a powerful flare, the Sun’s behavior becomes significantly less random. In all cases studied, the onset of strong flares was preceded by the appearance of distinct linear structures exhibiting a high degree of determinism. Based on our analysis, we classify the precursors of these solar events into three groups: the first group appears 130 to 30 h before the flare. The second group emerges around 5 h before the flare. The third group corresponds to the formation of a characteristic “flare parallelogram” pattern, occurring approximately 150 to 100 h before the event. These findings highlight potential early indicators of solar flares, offering valuable insights for space weather forecasting .
Source: Advances in Space Research
Institution: Crimean Astrophysical Observatory
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $2,780
OpenAlex ID: W4409671247